Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 13.99 | 11.56 | 2.40 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 6.26 | 4.78 | 1.50 |
| Montpellier | 5.13 | -0.21 | 5.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.92 | -2.17 | 6.10 |
| Section Paloise | 3.16 | 2.21 | 1.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.71 | 1.22 | 1.50 |
| Clermont | 2.45 | 1.88 | 0.60 |
| Racing 92 | 1.07 | 1.88 | -0.80 |
| Lyon | 0.60 | -0.45 | 1.00 |
| Toulon | -0.65 | 3.49 | -4.10 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.70 | 0.59 | -1.30 |
| Bayonne | -1.26 | 1.48 | -2.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.89 | -3.37 | -1.50 |
| Montauban | -18.89 | -10.00 | -8.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 140 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 29 | 26 – 15 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montauban | Mar 29 | 49 – 17 | 23.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 29 | 17 – 21 | 1.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 | Mar 29 | 27 – 17 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Mar 29 | 45 – 29 | 15.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Mar 29 | 36 – 20 | 1.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Clermont | Mar 30 | 64 – 20 | 5.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Section Paloise | Apr 19 | Bayonne | 2.10 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 19 | Stade Toulousain | -8.20 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Lyon | Apr 19 | Clermont | 8.40 |
| 4 | Montauban vs. Toulon | Apr 19 | Toulon | -11.70 |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan | Apr 19 | Montpellier | 16.50 |
| 6 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais | Apr 19 | Racing 92 | 3.60 |
| 7 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Apr 19 | Stade Rochelais | 2.90 |
The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 21 first appeared on Stats Chat.