The WSJ recently published a pair of articles (here and here) talking about where the US is growing and shrinking — through charts. The three components of this are domestic migration, international migration, and births minus deaths.
One of the key themes for the year ending in June 2025 is that the country is seeing significantly less international migration. According to the WSJ, more people moved out of the US than moved in last year for the first time since the Great Depression.
International migration is critical because around 65% of all counties in the US are now experiencing more deaths than births, meaning the fertility rate is declining. This is an increase from around 34% of all counties as recently as 2010.
On the domestic front, one interesting finding is that, for the first time in many years, the Midwest added more domestic migrants than it lost. As expected, the growth region for domestic migration remains the South, though it has slowed.
Also interesting is the extent to which San Francisco has rebounded. During the depths of the pandemic, things appeared dire for the city. Nobody was more untethered than tech workers, and the feeling was that they'd never return. Nope. The city has grown for the last three years.
The decline in international migrants is not unique to the US. The same thing is true in Canada. But we (Canada) remain in the business of attracting the smartest and most ambitious people from around the world. I have no clue what's going on in the US these days — it changes hour by hour — but maybe they'd like to remain in this business as well.
Cover photo by Austin Neill on Unsplash
Charts from The Wall Street Journal