Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 12.73 | 10.30 | 2.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | 8.25 | 5.55 | 2.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 5.59 | -1.47 | 7.10 |
| Saracens | 4.85 | 5.03 | -0.20 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 4.74 | -4.58 | 9.30 |
| Bristol | 2.50 | 3.66 | -1.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.36 | 6.70 | -4.30 |
| Gloucester | -4.56 | 4.13 | -8.70 |
| Harlequins | -8.80 | -3.02 | -5.80 |
| Newcastle Red Bulls | -19.80 | -18.45 | -1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 29 | 17 – 36 | -3.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Harlequins | Mar 29 | 14 – 18 | 22.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 29 | 14 – 38 | -16.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Mar 29 | 26 – 31 | -3.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 29 | 17 – 21 | 8.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | Apr 18 | Bristol | 14.10 |
| 2 | Bath vs. Harlequins | Apr 19 | Bath | 28.50 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 19 | Exeter Chiefs | 6.20 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Red Bulls | Apr 19 | Leicester Tigers | 35.10 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Apr 20 | Sale Sharks | 4.50 |
The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13 first appeared on Stats Chat.