Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14.91 | 8.77 | 6.10 |
| Storm | 8.25 | 6.96 | 1.30 |
| Sharks | 5.91 | 7.25 | -1.30 |
| Broncos | 5.65 | 7.06 | -1.40 |
| Roosters | 5.49 | 9.50 | -4.00 |
| Warriors | 2.05 | -1.18 | 3.20 |
| Dolphins | 1.35 | 1.85 | -0.50 |
| Bulldogs | 0.28 | 2.13 | -1.80 |
| Raiders | -1.56 | 1.62 | -3.20 |
| Eels | -2.24 | -0.37 | -1.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.10 | -7.26 | 4.20 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.11 | -5.05 | 1.90 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.56 | 0.21 | -3.80 |
| Cowboys | -4.12 | -2.69 | -1.40 |
| Dragons | -7.70 | -6.72 | -1.00 |
| Titans | -8.78 | -8.02 | -0.80 |
| Knights | -9.73 | -14.06 | 4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Mar 26 | 16 – 33 | -3.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 27 | 14 – 32 | 13.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Dolphins | Mar 27 | 26 – 12 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Mar 28 | 16 – 24 | 17.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Eels | Mar 28 | 48 – 20 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Mar 28 | 28 – 24 | -10.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Mar 29 | 22 – 34 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Dragons | Mar 29 | 22 – 14 | 1.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 02 | Dolphins | 8.90 |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Apr 03 | Rabbitohs | 0.60 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Storm | Apr 03 | Panthers | 10.70 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | Apr 04 | Dragons | 0.40 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Apr 04 | Broncos | -10.40 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Apr 05 | Sharks | 7.90 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Raiders | Apr 05 | Raiders | -4.20 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 06 | Eels | 4.90 |
The post NRL Predictions for Round 5 first appeared on Stats Chat.